Though it is early days, initial indications are that the worrisome El Niño weather phenomenon could remain ‘neutral’ during India’s next southwest monsoon. This means a better chance of a normal monsoon in 2015.
The Australian Weather Bureau's latest forecast is that international models surveyed by it indicate tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (a critical indicator of El Niño) are likely to be within the neutral range for at least the next three months. This is a big positive for India, as data for 1880 to 2005, compiled by private weather forecaster Skymet, show 90 per cent of all evolving El Niño years have led to below-normal rainfall, with 65 per cent of these resulting in drought. In the past decade, 2002, 2004 and 2009 were drought years due to El Niño emergence.
The four-month southwest monsoon season begins from June and provides almost 70 per cent of the country's total annual rain. They are crucial for growth of the kharif crops, planted during the season, and for the moisture to the soil for the following rabi season.
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