INVESTMENTS THROUGH P-NOTES RISING IN INDIA

Investments through participatory notes (P-notes), typically used by foreign investors not directly registered with the stock market regulator in India, touched a near two-year high in October.

These investments stood at Rs 183, 862 crore at October-end, the highest since May 2011. The P-note route is generally used by wealthy investors abroad, hedge funds and other investors who want to participate in the Indian markets but without being registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) as foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

Flows into Indian equities through the P-note route have been rising, due to currency depreciation and continuation of the stimulus programme of the US Federal Reserve, say market watchers

LEVELS FOR NIFTY FUTURE 21 ST NOVEMBER 2013

Watch :6124 ,6110 as Support levels.

Now SUPPOSE Breaks 6110 with volumes and stays below for 20 minutes …………………………Then ??

Nonstop Slide upto 6066———6052 not ruled out.

Three Consecutive close above 6219 will take to 6290—–6313 level  (valid only if not breaks 6008 level )

INDIA INC FINANCIAL HEALTH SLIPS

Even as the September quarter earnings of Sensex companies managed to beat Street estimates, the financial health of India Inc deteriorated. According to a Credit Suisse report released on Tuesday, corporate financial health worsened in Q2 as 34% of loans were with firms with interest coverage (IC) ratio of less than one. In previous quarters, corporates with a lower ability to service debt had 31% of loans.

Interest coverage ratio compares the interest expense during a period to a company’s operating profit and reflects a company’s ability to service interest on its outstanding debt. A lower value indicates lower debt servicing ability.

The CS report observed that within the category, 80% of loans were with companies whose interest coverage was lower than one for at least four quarters in the last two years and 26% of loans were with companies that had dismal interest cover in the last eight consecutive quarters.

It further noted that concerns over debt-servicing ability of infrastructure and real estate firms persisted. “In Q2, the share of infra and real estate companies among the IC<1 companies rose as JPA, DLF and HCC were added, while Adani Ports and R Comm went off the list,” added the report prepared by analysts Ashish Gupta, Prashant Kumar and Kush Shah.

Moreover, with the loss-making companies accounting for nearly 26% of the sample debt, the net worth of these companies witnessed an erosion of 22-80% in the last two years while their debt levels went up, said the report.

On the back of continuing cash-flow strains and currency depreciation, debt levels for most of the stressed corporates increased by 5-12% in the first half of the current fiscal. These consists of eight of the nine largest companies, including Adani Enterprise, GMR Infra, Lanco Infra and JSW Steel with an interest coverage ratio of less than one.

Meanwhile, a slowdown in the economy put stress on sectors such as power and metals, which continued to depend on bank loans. “Bank loan growth to stressed sectors like power (26% y-o-y) and metals (21% y-o-y) remained high,” the Swiss-based brokerage added.

FIRST ALL WOMEN BANK IN INDIA

Bharatiya Mahila Bank, the country’s first all-women commercial bank, commenced its operations on Tuesday with seven branches. However, doubts remain if the bank will succeed in achieving its objective of economic empowerment of women in remote villages.

The setting up of the Bharatiya Mahila Bank is a small step towards the economic empowerment of women. It is also a reflection of our commitment to this cause. I am sure that the bank will fulfill the objective with which it is being established, namely financial inclusion of women and providing them equal and easy access of financial services,” said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh while inaugurating the bank's first branch in Mumbai's Nariman Point.

Bharatiya Mahila Bank has been set up with an initial paid-up capital of Rs 1,000 crore. Led by Usha  Ananthasubramanian, all the eight on the board of directors of the bank are women. The bank aims to increase its branch count to 25 by March 2014.

This is time to Lay the foundation for a Wealthy Future....

PENALTY FOR RELIANCE

The government has slapped an additional penalty of $792 million on Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) for producing less than targeted natural gas from its eastern offshore KG-D6 block.

A notice disallowing $792 million out of the cost already incurred on the Bay of Bengal fields was sent to RIL on November 14, an oil ministry official said here.

With this, a total of $1.797 billion penalty in form of cost being disallowed has been levied on RIL for producing less than targeted output during the past three years.

The company has till date spent $10.76 billion on the block, which it can contractually recover from sale of oil and gas. It is obliged to share the profits with the government only after recouping those expenses.

The official said the cost has been disallowed as RIL and its partners BP plc of UK and Canada’s Niko Resources did not drill the committed number of wells, which led to output dropping by over 80 per cent from the main Dhirubhai—1 and 3 (D1&D3) gas fields in the KG—D6 block.

D1&D3 fields have in the first fours years of production (2009—10 to 2012—13) produced a total of 1.853 trillion cubic feet of gas, 1.196 Tcf short of 3.049 Tcf that RIL had committed to produce in the 2006 development plan.

But for the first year, the output has lagged the targets in all subsequent years, which has led to a huge chunk of facilities built lying unutilised, the official said.

RIL had built facilities to handle 80 million standard cubic metres per day of gas from D1&D3 but the present output is just 8.78 mscmd.

As per the production sharing contract, RIL and its partners BP Plc and Niko Resources are allowed to deduct all of the capital and operating expenses from sale of gas before sharing profits with the government.

Creation of excess or unutilised infrastructure impacts government’s profit share and this is being sought to be corrected by disallowing part of the cost.

According to the approved field development plan, the output should have reached 80 mscmd last fiscal.

The government had previously issued a notice to RIL disallowing $1.005 billion in cost for shortfall in production during 2010—11 and 2011—12 ($457 million for 2010—11 and the rest $548 million for 2011—12).le

TAPERING - SECOND ROUND

But the path With just six weeks of 2013 left, the question of when the Federal Reserve will begin to drain stimulus from the US economy remains the dominant one in financial markets. And with good reason.

It’s hard to find a financial market that wasn’t jolted in the early summer, when departing Fed chairman Ben Bernanke first signalled that five years of easy money was coming to an end.

US Treasury yields soared more than a percentage point; riskier assets, including emerging market bonds, equities and currencies were clobbered and the dollar jumped.

While the conversation about when the Fed will begin to slow – or taper – its stimulus programme still dominates, some are sceptical that financial markets will deliver a repeat of their summer swoon when the central bank does eventually reduce its bond-buying programme.

Economists at JPMorgan, for example, point out that emerging market assets – a beneficiary of the Fed’s bond-buying programme – have now priced in the likelihood that the central bank will tighten the stimulus tap.

As a proxy, they point to the spread (or difference in yield) between dollar-denominated junk bonds sold by emerging market companies and those issued by US companies. As the chart below shows, the spread has remained close to levels reach in May, when an added layer of risk was attached to emerging market assets.

They also argue that, much more forcefully than was managed over the summer, officials at the Fed will insist that tapering the bond-buying programme is quite different from any move to raise the central bank’s key interest rate.

Many economists now expect the Fed to underline this point by lowering the unemployment threshold – currently at 6.5 per cent – at which it has said it will consider raising its key interest rate.

Such arguments do offer some comfort that the Fed’s second attempt at tapering, currently forecast for the first quarter of 2014, will have a more muted effect on financial markets.

that Janet Yellen, the incoming Fed chairman, will have to tread when the Fed chooses to taper remains a testing one.

PSU BANKS WRITE OFF LOANS

Data collected by Reserve Bank of India over a period of one year blows the lid off what goes as loan classification in banks. In a presentation at the annual bankers’ conference, RBI deputy governor K C Chakrabarty showed how banks have sacrificed over Rs 1 lakh crore by writing off bad loans to corporates, which is much higher than Union finance minister P Chidambaram’s farm loan waiver in 2008—a move that received flak from the industry. 

Under the Debt Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme, 2008, the Centre had waived off around Rs 60,000 crore to farmers. 

“In the last 13 years, banks have written off 1 lakh crore and 95% of these are large loans. Everyone talks of the farm loan write-off, but it is the medium and large enterprises segment that has a 50% share in NPAs,” said Chakrabarty. 

The deputy governor flayed banks for using ‘technical write-offs’ to reduce their non-performing assets (bad loans) over the years. Technical write-off is a process adopted by banks whereby they take a hit on their profits and stop including the defaulting loan in the list of those from whom repayments are due. It is called a technical write-off because although banks do not show these loans as receivables in their books, they continue to pursue recovery in courts or other forum. 

A technical write-off enables banks to claim that they do not have any bad loans on their books by fully providing for the loans from their earnings. It also reduces their tax outgo. 

Chakrabarty also raised the issue of restructured loans—advances where potential defaulters are given more time to repay without being called defaulters. “Restructuring of loans with retrospective effect has killed credit quality in banks,” he said. He warned banks that the leeway might not be available in future. 

“We must move away from restructuring, there should not be any category called restructuring. The moment it is restructured, it should be declared as NPA, there should not be any technical write-off… be prepared for that, unless you do that you might not be able to get out of the mess,” he said. 

RBI numbers showed that the banks added Rs 4,94,836 crore to their bad loans between 2007 and 2013. During the same period, they reduced NPAs to the extent of Rs 3,50,332 crore. This was possible because loans worth Rs 1,41,295 crore were written off and another Rs 90,887 crore were upgraded to repaying loans and Rs 1,18,149 crore was recovered from defaulters. According to Chakrabarty, after a technical write-off, there is no incentive to pursue recovery. 

The deputy governor said that in the case of large loans, there is no one who is accountable for monitoring the loan, as these are sanctioned by the board or a committee. “Between 2007-13, credit to 10 large corporate groups has more than doubled. We have seen that wherever credit growth has been higher, NPAs are also higher.”

HOW TO WIN EVERY ARGUMENT

Eric Barker has a new article on how to win every argument. The article had a point which made me think whether the same situation happens in trading.

So it quoted an experiment by psychologist Drew Westen, which showed to supporters, footage of their favorite candidates completely contradicting himself. The experiment found that as soon as the people realized that the information contradicted their world view, the parts of the brain that handle reason and logic went dormant, while the parts of the brain that handle hostile attacks – the fight-or-flight response – lit up. Essentially logic gets thrown out the window, and it just becomes a fight where you do anything to win.

A similar situation occurs in trading, when you have a certain expectation of how the market should behave. E.g. you might for various reasons, think that the market will go up. So when the market does not follow what you expect, you might initially make up excuses for it. However when the market continues to go completely in the opposite direction of what you expect, your logic and reasoning centers would shut down, your fight-or-flight response kicks in, you treat it like a hostile attack on you, and you would do anything to win (or not lose), e.g. keep averaging down. I’m sure this sequence of events led to many traders blowing up their accounts. It is pretty interesting that the experiment showed this as a ‘natural expected’ behavior.

As always, trade what you see, not what you think.

INVESTMENT SURVIVAL

16 November 2013 - 16:16 pm

 

Here are some interesting quotes from The Battle of Investment Survival, by Gerald M Loeb, Simon and Schuster, 1957 (14th printing).

“There are some rules that hold, and my first is to buy only something that is quoted daily and can be bought and sold in an action market daily. The greater the volume of trading and the broader the market in a particular security, the closer to a fair price at a given moment that security is likely to be.”

“In my opinion, the primary factor in securing market profits lies in sensing the general trend. Are we in a deflation or inflation period? If the former, I would hardly bother to analyze most equities.”

“In short, in my opinion everything of an analytical nature covering specific securities should be persistently linked to past market appraisals and set up for use solely to determine future market possibilities.”

“Any program which involves complete investment of all capital at all times is certain to fail unless the amount of it is extremely small.”

“All this suggests the question – are we learning to trade for the quick turn or to invest for the long pull? We are investing for appreciation, and the length of time one holds a position has noting to do with it. I lean towards rather short turns for many reasons. To begin with, experience is gained much more rapidly that way. Short-term investing once mastered has very much more the elements of dependable business than the windfalls or calamities of the long pull.”

“Obviously, our ideas will sound wrong to the most people. Any investment policy followed by all naturally defeats itself. Thus the first step for the individual trying to secure or preserve capital is to detach himself from the crowd.”

WHAT TRADERS CONFUSE WITH SUCCESS

Many new traders deceive themselves. They celebrate small wins. They look for the magic solution to making money through a full proof system. They believe a seminar or newsletter will change their life completely. . Well, there is none, there is simply trading robust methodologies that have an edge, while managing risk, and keeping the right mindset. Trading can be a very fruitful endeavour, but new traders need to quit looking to be given fish and learn to fish for their self. Don’t confuse these 10 things with trading success. New traders need to understand the difference between having a tug on their fishing line and having a boat full of fish.

1.       It is not the winning trading system that determines your trading success but your ability to follow it.

2.       It is not the big wins that make you rich but your ability to keep them and not give them back in losses.

3.       Reading great trading books will not help you unless you read the right ones and really practice their lessons.

4.       Mentors will not help you unless you follow their advice.

5.       All the training to trade will do you know good unless you put it into action in your account.

6.       A great methodology will do you no good if you do not have great risk management.

7.       Small winning trades will not make you profitable if you have big losses.

8.       Capturing bull market trends make no difference if you give back your profits in the next bear market.

9.       A 95% win rate does you no good if your 5% of trades that are losses are bigger than the 95% that are winners.

10.    Participating in social media does traders no good if they follow the wrong people and are in the wrong trading groups.

NIFTY - TECHNICAL VIEW

- There are sometimes when you do not have a clear view or analysis on Nifty or many indices. This seems to be one of those times for him.

We saw a long term trendline breakdown but we ended up making a low of 5100 and reversing in no time and went to make new highs for the year at 6340. Question is which part of the move is false 5100 or 6340.

- Recently we touched the higher band of a 5 year range and got into overbought levels. ( we did take a short at 6350 and Bank Nifty puts but booked out pretty early at 6200 ). Also good part here is in the last 3 weeks the view of midcaps rocking has helped in a big way.

- Now in last 1 week we did a downtick for 7-8 sessions non stop getting a bit oversold. We did take a call option in Nifty which seems to be playing out well but will keep the trailing stops.

- But all through this there does not seem to be a clear direction to Nifty according to him. The conclusions might be different for others.

- In the same period what we have seen is a superb move in a lot of broader markets and the last 1 month has been really good with a lot of 15-40% jumping trades.

Now in simple terms the last low for Nifty was at 5700 and high at 6340. We are now standing at 6000-6100 giving almost a similar distance to both zones.

The call to take now is whether we break this range or be stuck in it for some time. But a risk reward trade does not seem to be coming where one can take a big call.

At the same time we have seen a good turnaround in a lot of midcaps

VEDANTA IN LOSSES

Vedanta Resources has posted a net loss for the six months ended in September, as it becomes the latest mining company to reveal the extent to which weaker commodity prices have hit the sector.

The London-listed mining conglomerate said it slipped into a $217m loss in its fiscal first-half, down from a $174m profit from the same period in 2012, as it cautioned of “moderating” growth in crucial developing economies, including India and China.

Revenues slipped 17 per cent, from $7.4bn to $6.2bn, against a backdrop of slower global growth rates and volatile commodity and currency markets.

Stripping out certain one-off items, operating profit was down 23 per cent to $1.1bn, from $1.4bn in the first half of 2012.

The company also reported record levels of oil and gas production and said its cost control programme was “strong.”

In its outlook statement, Vedanta said:

Growth rates have moderated in most developing economies, including India and China

The mining industry is currently facing headwinds in the form of price pressures and also, our sustained focus on operational and cost efficiency will help mitigate these pressures

THREE FEARS OF TRADING

Fear, hope and greed are probably the three most common emotions traders deal with.  Holding on to losers, exiting too early, or jumping in before confirmation are just a few examples of the things we do when emotion manages our trades for us.  Trading without well-defined boundaries can be tempting, especially when things like intuition and “gut feeling” are things we take pride in as human beings.

We’ve all heard stories about how someone’s gut instinct helped them to avoid a dangerous situation or how someone’s intuition led them to make a perfect decision with little or no substantive information to guide them.  As powerful as these abilities may be in our human experience, I’ve learned that they have no place in trading.  I have found that what we perceive as gut instinct or intuition while trading is usually just fear, hope, or greed in disguise.

I address these three specific emotions using three boundaries:

1. Stop Loss- At what price point is my idea proven wrong? 

This boundary addresses the fear of realizing a loss.

2. Time limit- How long do I give this trade to work?

Hoping that a trade will eventually work out as price goes no where only ties up capital that could be used for better trades.

3. Target- At what price point does my idea come to an end?

Having a clear target for your idea keeps you from being greedy (Exiting the majority of a position at the target and letting profits run on the remainder is an effective way to address greed with winning positions).

INDIAN INTERNET USERS

According to the report, released on Wednesday, India is expected to have 213 million internet users by December and 243 million by June 2014. Its netizen strength stood at 205 million in October and 190 million in June this year.

At present, China is at the top with a little over 300 million internet users, while the US (an estimated 207 million) is a distant second

“The internet user base in India took more than a decade to move from 10 million to 100 million but only three years to double from there to 200 million. From here on, we can hope to develop a robust internet ecosystem, with a multitude of local and global players and a thriving internet economy. Internet is now, clearly, mainstream in India,” said IAMAI Chairman Rajan Anandan

BUY UNITED BREWERIES

In 13 sessions from 1006 to  739 level…………………………………!!

Yes ,Taken U-Turn ,Now at 765 level.

Above 752 level ,We see BLAST BLAST upto 806—823

Yes ,Time to Drink BEER !!

If Any Time WARREN BUFFET announces stake in DIAGEO ………………….Then can see positive impact in UNITED BREW ??

• 
  

INVESTMENT IDEAS

SONATA SOFTWARE

(Bse Ticker-532221@ Rs.34/-)

Just Watch Rs.37/-

Close Above Rs.37/-

Upper Range For Stock Rise to Rs.52/-

TARGET

Rs.37/- Rs.42/- SL Rs.27/-

TATA COMM

(Bse Ticker-500483@ Rs.273/-)

Considering 255--260 Base For Stock

Stock In Big Up Move

Upper Range of Stock Rs.340/-

TARGET

Rs.285/- Rs.292/- SL Rs.252/-

BEML LTD

(Bse Ticker-500048@ Rs.180/-)

Considering Rs.172--Rs.175/-

Just Watch Rs.184/-

Closing Above 184 Big Breakout In Stock!!!!

TARGET

Rs.205/- Rs.220/- SL Rs.165/-

Picks Mid-Caps Before

They Become Large Caps

TAPERING TALKS RETURN

Talk of tapering is back on the table and US investors are again bracing for a pullback of the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus.

Declining equities in Asia and Europe appear ready to spill over to the US. US stock market futures slipped ahead of the opening bell in New York, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 0.21 per cent to 15750.67 and the S&P 500 down 0.24 per cent to 1767.69.

Discussion of when the US central bank would begin to taper its quantitative easing programme quietened down following last month’s government shutdown, but comments from Fed officials on Tuesday sparked speculation that bond-buying could still slow before the end of the year.

Investors are expected to be cautious on Wednesday ahead of Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing on Thursday. Ms Yellen, who President Barack Obama has tapped to be the next Fed chairman, will have the stage to offer her views on where the central bank’s monetary policy should go from here.

Wednesday’s economic calendar is otherwise light, with the monthly Federal budget statement this afternoon being the only highlight.

On the corporate side, Macy’s is set to release its earnings before the market opens.

TRADING METHODS

1. Develop information avenues for market conditions and upcoming events

There are many factors that go into driving price action. Quite a few of these things are publicly known and broadcast far in advance. Find yourself a website that offers a calendar of upcoming economic events that can have an affect on currencies you trade. There is always the threat of getting whipsawed out of a position that looks pristine with the impact that news has on the markets.

Listening to analysts and advisers can provide insight on circumstances you may have overlooked. On the other hand, you want to be careful about basing your trading decisions on the information provided by one or two other people. Each trading you decision you make needs to be the right one for you, for your strategy, for your profitability.
 

2. Strive for consistency to generate repeated, positive results

Humans are creatures of habit. Working to turn your habit into instinct will provide a significant edge in your trading analysis. How do you do that?  A trader must continuously practice their method, edge, and trading circumstances to make it a natural extension of themself.  One could look at a martial artist as a metaphor for this practice. The martial artist practices, practices, and practices more to make their manipulation an extension of their person so they don’t have to think about them when the time arises. Traders should do the same to incorporate their trading plan and practices into successful execution.

Do your analysis and trading at a consistent time (if possible). Review your plan, entry, and exit criteria before executing any transaction. Document every transaction with screenshots of the charts to accompany the information so you can review.

 

3. Education and understanding are at the heart of every successful venture

Forex trading is a discipline where a person should never stop learning. You never know when you may pull a single sentence of wisdom out of a book or forex trading video that can help you improve your profitability.  

On the other hand, one must be careful to not try and fit everything they learn into their own trading strategy. Not everything you learn will be relevant to the way you approach forex. Not everyone with an opinion is worth listening to. Check and cross-check information before you decide to integrate it into your own trading plan. You only want the most relevant, best information that applies to your philosophy on forex trading.

4. Document every success and failure to gain wisdom from them

Failing is almost as valuable as succeeding for the person wanting long-term success in any venture, forex included. Everyone makes mistakes. People that succeed learn from those mistakes and ensure the mistake is not made a second time. Each trade will have reasons it may have succeeded or failed. You should document each transaction in your trading journal along with the reasons why it may have succeeded or failed.

It is important to dig below the surface to get to real answers. For example, if a trade gets stopped out; why did it get stopped out? Did you neglect to check for economic events regarding a currency in the pair that took you out? Was there some world event? Or was it just some unidentified circumstance that you cannot nail down?

There will be a periodic trade that you can’t pin down the success or failure of but most of them will have clear reasons for their movement. So many traders fail to properly document their transactions for analysis. Don’t make that mistake!

5. Eliminate any potential intangibles in your Trading Plan that can derail your success

A lot has been said on the necessity of Trading Plans and strategies to find success. If you have one drawn up- great! There is likely to be room for some refinement and honing to ensure you are eliminating any potential future confusion. One of the purposes of the Trading Plan is to eliminate excessive thinking, confusion, and emotion from the process. Take some time to think about your last ten trades and how much effort you had to put in to determining whether they were good trades.

If you had to dedicate a lot of effort to it; then your Trading Plan may not be as clearly defined as it should be.

Here are a couple of often neglected points:

- All criteria for Stops and exits.
Are you using a time based strategy? Where is your Stop Loss placed? When do you advance it to Break Even? Do not use mental stops; clearly define them and place them appropriately every time. Each trade should have clear definition. Yes, every trade is unique. That’s why you should have a few predefined exit strategies in place before you ever place one.

- Eliminate or define any intangible entry criteria. 
The most common is the hallowed Break Out trade. Break Outs can provide a significant amount of momentum that can put money in your account. However, traders don’t always define what makes a clear Break Out and subsequently get caught in the pull-back of a false Break Out. So what constitutes a  Break Out? A good rule of thumb is if a candlestick closes X number of pips past the Support/Resistance level.
 

6. Familiarize yourself with the more common indicators that other traders use

So you’ve been trading for awhile, found a great strategy that works for you, but want to improve the number of pips you take. How you can do that without changing your own strategy too much? Take the time to research and understand some of the more common indicators that other traders use that you may not use in your strategy. The idea is to get into the minds of other traders to try and predict how they are going to respond to a given market action.

That does not mean you will adopt these signals as part of your own trading strategy. Instead, if you are unclear on a potential trade, they can be referenced to see if other traders will be seeing a similarly profitable signal that they may act on. Some of the most commonly used indicators to familiarize yourself with include:

- RSI
- EMA (200)
- Fibonacci Retracement
 

7. Develop your patience and temper your emotions

The mind game is the biggest hurdle to overcome for any trader. Even traders of intermediate experience still make the periodic mistake from lack of emotional discipline or patience. This is a skill that one needs to actively work on to develop. The good news is; it’s a skill that will serve you in several other facets of your life. Family, friends,  can often use a little extra patience or neutrality when problems arise.

A great way to work on this aspect of your mental game is to embrace other relaxing activities to put your mind in the right place. A number of traders like to meditate before they open their platform. Others trade with soft, soothing music to focus on to drive anxiety away. The best measure? Days off. The retail spot market is closed two days a week. Use at least one of those days to push forex, the successes, and the failures out of your mind.

Your mind is a powerful muscle but it needs rest to maintain its strength in the long-term. Don’t be afraid to take breaks to reduce the long-term stress and improve your ability to think with clarity. The markets will be there in the coming week.

Monitor your emotions closely. If you feel yourself getting out of sorts and too angry; just wait for a little while. It’s easy to make emotional mistakes if you simply act on whatever emotions flood your mind the moment of or shortly after. But what about in ten minutes? Will your emotional reaction still be the best course of action in your mind? Probably not.

NIFTY FUTURES LEVEL FOR MONDAY

Last Close : 6180 level.

In Just 5 sessions fro 6379 to 6162 level !!

Now -What to expect

Short Term Support at 6157——-6139 level.

Now ,Suppose Breaks and Trades below 6139 with volumes or closes below this level will take to  6081-6063 level in panic.

Tomorrow if not breaks low of  6162 & trades above 6175 level with volumes ………..then ??

Rally upto 6216—–6229  not ruled out.Above 6229 see More Fire work

So Just Concentrate on 6157-6139 level in panic.

THE LEVELS FOR NIFTY AND BSE FOR WEEK BEGINING 11TH NOVEMBER

The Sensex hit a all time high of 21321.50 on Diwali and has turned

back since to where it was two weeks ago. The immediate support

now comes at 20500. The short term trend will turn negative only on

a close below 20500. If the index holds 20500, than it can again rally

up to 21050 & 21321. Downward targets on breach of 20500 is 20280

and 20050.

The Nifty recorded a peak of 6342.90 in the Diwali session. The

Traders should watch the support of 6100 & 6080. Reversal from

these levels can take Nifty to 6210 or 6260. Break above 6342 can

take it up to 6500 level. Targets on breach of 6080 level is 6020 and

5950. The medium term trend will turn negative on a close below

5900 level. Investors and traders need to stay cautious.