India-Crop area down, water levels up

The area under summer crops dropped 7.4% until Friday from a year earlier despite a marked improvement in the quantum of rainfall in the past week and almost steady water reserves, according to official data, reports  Bureau in New Delhi.

Having witnessed a 1% drop from the benchmark average until June 11, rainfall up to June 18 has exceeded the long-period average (LPA) by 10%, amid forecasts that seasonal showers would continue to be normal in June before losing some intensity in July. Water reserves across 91 reservoirs in the country dropped marginally though, to 39.6 billion cubic metres (bcm) until June 18 from 40.1 bcm until a week before. However, water reserves are still 3% higher than a year earlier and 39% more than the normal 10-year average.

As seasonal showers lashed central India over the past few days, the planting of summer crops like cotton and oilseeds is expected pick up pace in the coming days.

Central India — including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Odisha — which witnessed a 29% rainfall deficit during the June1-11 period, erased the deficiency fast and received 19% higher than normal rainfall until Thursday.

However, the rain deficit in the northwestern regions, which are projected to receive rainfall at just 85% of the LPA, has widened to 12% until Thursday from 8% until a week earlier, according to data from by the India Meterological Department (IMD). Besides the Met department has also predicted that the rainfall over the country is likely to be 92% of the LPA during July and 90% of LPA in August.

While the coverage of paddy, pulses and oil seeds has been higher from last year, that of coarse cereals plunges 42% from a year earlier (see charts). Even the area under cane and cotton are down from a year before. This is despite the fact that sowing was affected initially by dry spells last year, so the area under various summer crops was down by almost 13% until June 20, 2014, from the previous year.

The IMD earlier this month had revised downward its forecast of seasonal rainfall (June-September) for this year to 88% of the LPA, from 93% reported in May. However private forecaster Skymet has predicted a normal monsoon, with showers at 102% of the LPA.

“Conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha and West Bengal during next two days and conditions are also favourable for further advance of monsoon into parts of Arabian sea and Gujarat in the next three days,” IMD said in a statement.