The Greek crisis maybe generating an astonishing amount of headlines, but it’s not the biggest risk to financial markets over the next 12 months. Indeed, according to a survey by Barclays, it doesn’t appear to be generating much sweat on many brows.
Just take a look:
- Only 23 per cent of the 899 investors surveyed by Barclays expect Greece to exit the euro
- Even if Athens does take its leave from Europe’s Monetary Union, just 20 per cent reckon that’s a “big negative” for markets
What’s more, the poll suggests the protracted standoff between Greece and its creditors hasn’t soured the buoyant sentiment towards European equities (even if European stocks have underperformed of late).
- A clear majority of investors expect European stocks to outperform over the next three months (see chart 3)
- And the Eurozone is the region where growth is most likely to beat forecasts (see chart 4)
Is it complacency? Have people become too inured? Or are they right?
The latest tweet from Alexander Stubb, Finland’s finance minister, in which he cautions against expecting much from today’s meeting in Brussels certainly shows how investors may have become inured as the summits roll on and on.
PS: What do investors judge to be the biggest risk over the next 12 months? Weak Chinese and emerging market growth. (see final chart)
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