A piece from Mohamed A. El-Erian on Bloomberg today …. 10 Consequences of Greece’s ‘No’
By heeding their government’s advice and voting “No” in the referendum on Sunday, Greek citizens sent an unambiguous message.
El Erian’s list of the 10, in brief (more detail at the link)
Here are 10 consequences of the vote that could unfold in the next few days:
1. will initially lead to a general selloff in global equities
2. European politicians will urgently seek to regain the initiative
3. Greek and European politicians don’t have much time to get their act together
4. As hoarding increases, shortages of goods, including fuel and food, will intensify. Capital and payments controls will be tightened. The economy will take another worrisome step down
5. The Greek government will be under mounting pressure to issue some type of IOUs to maintain a sense of a functioning economy
6. Outside Greece, a lot of thought will be given to limiting adverse spillovers
7. All parties involved will find themselves slipping into their Plan B mode. This transition will probably be much more traumatic for Greece than for the rest of Europe.
8. Europe has the instruments and institutions to limit contagion and maintain the integrity of the euro zone
9. It is quite doubtful, however, that Greece will be able to restore its status as a full member of the euro zone
10. Finally, expect an explosion of blame
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