Monday 20 January 2014

BULLISH FOR 2014


The stock market's slow start to 2014 doesn't seem to worry Jeremy Siegel.

The professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School maintained his bullish outlook on 2014, that he believes the Dow would finish this year at a record high—somewhere between 18,000 and 18,500. His main concern? Getting the jittery retail investor back into the action.

Siegel believes investors shouldn't worry that there's anything wrong with stock market.

The market still has room to grow about 10 to 15 percent next year, but it won't be a straight line, said Siegel, the author of the long-running investment manual "Stocks for the Long Run." It may overshoot estimates, or suffer a correction before hitting fair market value. He said it's normal to be concerned about a strong stock market, especially after the 2008 financial crisis.

Siegel's rosy outlook extended to fears over higher interest rates and a bigger emphasis on stock buybacks among corporations. He predicts buybacks will play a large role in the markets this year, and that their use does not mean a company lacks better capital investments.

He also discounted fears that increased borrowing would spike velocity in the money supply to the point where it could hinder the Fed from controlling inflation.

"Short-term rates are going to stay near zero, that's going to keep that velocity down," Siegel said. "We really have to push the economy and inflation to get the velocity up. It's not happening soon.

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