Let’s see…………..What happens @ 9:15 and Today evening Result too.
Those who know………..What to Do …Today can earn Millions !!
Monday, 18 April 2016
Oil producers get worst possible outcome, destroy remaining credibility
It was the worst possible outcome for oil producers at their weekend meeting in Doha, with their failure to reach even a weak agreement showing very publicly their divisions and inability to act in their own interests.
Expectations for the meeting had been modest at best, with sources in the producer group predicting an agreement to freeze output. But even this meagre hope was dashed by Saudi Arabia’s insistence Iran join any deal, something the newly sanctions-free Islamic republic wouldn’t countenance.
From a producer point of view, an agreement including Iran that shifted market perceptions on the amount of oil supply available would have been the best outcome.
The acceptable result would have been an agreement that froze production at already near record levels, with an accord that Iran would join in once it had reached its pre-sanctions level of exports.
What was delivered instead was confirmation that the Saudis are prepared to take more pain in order not to deliver their regional rivals Iran any windfall gains from higher prices and exports.
The meeting in Qatar on Sunday effectively pushed a reset button on the crude markets, putting the situation back to where the market was before hopes of producer discipline were first raised.
What happens now is that the market will have to continue along its previous path of re-balancing, without any assistance from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) or erstwhile ally Russia.
Brent crude fell nearly 7 percent in early trade in Asia on Monday, before partly recovering to be down around 4 percent.
The potential is for crude to fall further in coming sessions as long positions built up in the expectation of some sort of producer agreement are liquidated in the face of the reality of no deal.
It’s likely that recriminations will follow for some time among the oil producers, with the Russians and Venezuelans said to be annoyed at what they see as the Saudi scuppering of a deal that had almost been locked in.
FUTURE DEAL UNDERMINED
This will make it harder for any future agreement, with the OPEC meeting on June 2 the next chance for the grouping to reach some sort of agreement.
For the time being, OPEC’s credibility is shot, and won’t be restored by even a future agreement as it will take actual, verifiable action to convince a now sceptical market.
However, as the events in Doha showed, the Saudis are unlikely to agree to anything in the absence of Iranian participation, and that is also equally unlikely.
While the Mexican standoff between the OPEC rivals continues, the oil market will have to continue re-balancing through other paths.
What re-balancing has been achieved so far hasn’t really involved OPEC or Russia, with those countries pumping at, or close to, record levels in recent months.
Rather, supply from other producers has gradually fallen, such as Canadian oil sands and U.S. shale.
This process is likely to continue to prove fairly slow, meaning that crude markets are probably in for an extended period of more than adequate supply.
Of course, demand is the other side of the equation, and here again the process is fairly gradual, although more constructive, especially if China’s economy is regaining some momentum as suggested by recent data, and India’s fuel demand continues to motor along.
But for now, the market will take the collapse of any producer discipline, coupled with the obvious tensions between the Saudi and Iranian/Russian camps as a sign that oil is once again in bearish territory.
Tuesday, 5 April 2016
RBI Governor takes a dig at authors of Eco Survey
Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan on Tuesday said that the
suggestion in the Economic Survey for 2015-16 to the effect that the
central bank should use its capital and recapitalise public sector
banks (PSBs) was not a good one, reports fe Bureau in Mumbai. “Whoever
wrote that piece does not understand monetary policy economics or the
monetary balance sheet of banks,” the governor said, pointing out that
the RBI’s balance sheet was different from that of the banks.
Rajan clarified that he did not intend to criticise the government but only the author of the report.
“The author of the piece has not understood monetary economics that well and I would be happy to teach them,” he quipped.
Rajan
explained that, say, the RBI monetises close to Rs 2 lakh crore, it
could add Rs 2 lakh crore to the size of the balance sheet. “However, if
we give half of it to the government, that means there is only Rs 1
lakh crore left to buy government bonds,” the governor said, adding that
the bonds will have to be sold in the market.
“So
what we are saying is given those constraints, any extra money we give
to the government will basically reduce our ability to buy government
bonds directly,” Rajan said.
According
to the Economic Survey 2015-16, to address the economy’s critical
short-term challenge of public sector banks (PSBs) and some large
corporates having highly stressed balance sheets, the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) could redeploy the capital at its disposal for
recapitalising the PSBs.
Noting
that the RBI is an outlier among the community of central banks with a
high shareholder equity-asset ratio of 32%, the survey’s authors
recommended that without compromising on its need to keep buffer capital
to cope with eventualities like perils to its forex reserves from the
rupee’s volatility, the RBI could reallocate a portion of its capital to
the shareholder banks.
It
had also said that the RBI is next only to Norway’s central bank in
holding a high portion of equity (capital, retained earnings and
contingencies) with itself — around Rs 8 lakh crore now, including
unrealised gains.
Market Review for 5th April 2016
Nifty (7759)
we said ‘technically 7800 is still possible as long as 7700 holds but
my concern is the banks and its banks that hold the key and PSU banks in
particular’ the market has closed mildly in the green and analysis
remains the same…
The support for the Nifty is at 7700-7650 and the resistance to the up move is at 7784-7952
Trading Strategy For 06th April’16.Nifty Future-All Eyes on 7660-7672.Big PANIC …Below 7584 only
Above is Trend of Nifty Future For Today’s Trading
Any PANIC ,Any Big Slide :Major Support area at 7525-7501
To Cross 7810 level…………U Now need MIRACLE !!
Saturday, 2 April 2016
Market Review for 4th April 2016
Nifty (7713)
we said ‘technically 7800 is still possible as long as 7700 holds but
my concern is the banks’ and its banks that hold the key and PSU banks
in particular
The support for the Nifty is at 7700-7650 and the resistance to the up move is at 7784-7952
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